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Sonora 2018, la moneda de 2021 en el aire

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Pues finalmente se despejaron dudas y quedaron integradas las tres fórmulas que se diputarán los cargos más importantes que estarán en juego este 2018, y los lectores no deben perder de vista que en esta contienda se está perfilando la sucesión gubernamental 2021, de manera que no sólo se trata de los protagonistas, sino de los quehaceres políticos y legislativos de todos los que hoy están en la batalla.

Y los que no están en esta batalla como candidatos, pero que seguramente la buscarán dentro de tres años, como Ernesto “El Borrego” Gándara Canou y Ricardo Bours Castelo, más los que se acumulen.

Si el actual proceso tiene aristas nunca antes vistas en cuanto a la reconfiguración de fuerzas políticas, no querrá la grillísima lectora, el pre infartado lector, imaginar cómo se pondrán las cosas dentro de tres años.

Con los últimos acontecimientos y la definición de candidaturas, la pelea por el tercio mayor en la disputa por los cuatro escaños (o más) en el senado, será sin dar ni pedir cuartel.

Recordemos que los contendientes son seis, pero de ellos sólo llegarán tres: dos por mayoría (los que ganen la elección) y uno de primera minoría (quien encabece la fórmula que quede en segundo lugar); aunque puede llegar uno más por lista plurinominal.

El PRI dará a conocer su lista de plurinominales hasta el 18 de marzo y no parece que algún sonorense sea incluido en los primeros lugares, salvo que hubiera una sorpresa y se incluyera a Manlio Fabio Beltrones, lo que parece poco probable considerando que su hija va como cabeza de fórmula en Sonora.

Pero el PAN ya la publicó y en ella aparece Damián Zepeda Vidales en un privilegiado cuarto lugar; Morena no incluyó a ningún sonorense y el PRD tiene en su lista de seis, a Jesús Zambrano Grijalva.

Así, estaríamos hablando de por lo menos cinco sonorenses en la Cámara Alta, con intenciones de inscribirse dentro de tres años para contender por la gubernatura por sus respectivos partidos.

En el arrancadero pues, están Sylvana Beltrones y Maloro Acosta por la coalición Todos por México; Antonio Astiazarán y Leticia Cuesta por la coalición De frente por México y Lilly Téllez y Alfonso Durazo por la coalición Juntos haremos historia.

Digamos que la elección la ganan Sylvana y Maloro, lo que hasta ahora parece lo más probable, considerando la prospectiva que se ha trazado desde el PRI, según la cual el efecto de las renuncias de Antonio Astiazarán y Abel Murrieta les restarán una suma importante de votos, pero no los suficientes para desbancarlos del primer lugar.

Claro, hay otras expectativas en los otros partidos, que consideran el efecto de esas renuncias con saldos graves para el tricolor, pero en todo caso no favorecerían a la fórmula Astiazarán-Cuesta, sino que el voto antisistema lo captaría la fórmula de Morena, que está metida en serio por la disputa por la primera minoría, y al día de hoy hay encuestas que los ubican en el primer lugar.

La pregunta sigue siendo si Morena tiene la estructura y los recursos humanos y materiales en Sonora, para operar el “Día D”, o si se repetirá la historia de elecciones anteriores, donde sus liderazgos prefirieron “clavarse” la lana para los representantes de casilla, dejándoles el terreno libre al PRI y al PAN.

La posibilidad de un triunfo del PAN se ve remota, incluso considerando que esta vez llevan a dos candidatos que no son de ese partido y no cargan, por ende, con la pesada losa del padrecismo a cuestas. Lo que sí tienen, es el apoyo de priistas y ex priistas en varias partes del estado, pero señaladamente en el sur, y de manera más específica en Cajeme, donde el poderoso clan Bours ya ha anunciado su apoyo a esa fórmula.

No hay que olvidar que Cajeme es un importante semillero de votos, que en otras ocasiones han servido para inclinar en un sentido o en otro, el resultado de las elecciones estatales.

Y que buena parte del rechazo a la fórmula priista está fundado en lo que consideran una imposición de Manlio Fabio Beltrones, con quien la familia Bours tiene añejas diferencias y hasta animadversiones.

El escenario en Sonora, que hasta hace poco aparecía despejado para el tricolor, se ha complicado significativamente y lo que aparece ahora es una disputa por el tercio mayor, en una elección que se avizora bastante competida.

Obviamente, una cosa son las cuentas que sacan los estrategas y las cúpulas partidistas, y otra, quizá muy distinta, lo que el electorado esté pensando, especialmente ese segmento mayoritario de indecisos que aparece en todas las encuestas, y el llamado “voto oculto”, que se guarda para el último día y que no necesariamente se orienta hacia la opción que respondió en dichas encuestas.

Hay que considerar además otros dos factores. Por un lado, la buena calificación del gobierno de Claudia Pavlovich que, independientemente de sus naturales detractores, ha venido enderezando el rumbo de un gobierno que el padrecismo dejó en bancarrota y ha generado resultados en temas fundamentales como el de infraestructura carretera y urbana; en generación de empleos y reactivación económica, combate a la pobreza y otros programas sociales que están siendo muy bien evaluados abajo, entre los beneficiarios de los mismos, que no necesariamente piensan igual que los aspirantes a “influencers” en redes sociales.

Por otro lado, el hecho indiscutible de que el PRI sigue siendo en Sonora, el partido que más aceitada tiene su maquinaria electoral y sin duda la pondrá en marcha durante los próximos días.

Aun así, insisto, el resultado de esta elección tiene un alto grado de incertidumbre. Todavía no se sabe, bien a bien, cómo va a reaccionar el electorado frente a los conflictos internos en las tres principales fuerzas políticas en contienda.

Sobre el PRI se cierne la sombra de lo que pueda ocurrir en Cajeme y otros municipios importantes; pero el PAN tiene sus propios problemas y ni siquiera puede asegurar que un priista como Antonio Astiazarán lo pueda regresar a la disputa por los primeros lugares, ya que antes tendría que resolver el litigio que invalidó su coalición con el PRD y MC.

Morena, por su parte, le apuesta todo a la Ola Peje, pero una vez que decida sus candidatos a diputaciones locales y alcaldías, podría ser víctima del desencanto ciudadano frente a perfiles poco competitivos y más bien reciclados del priismo o el panismo.

Por cierto, ayer Morena dio a conocer su lista de candidatos a diputados federales, y aquí es donde puede comenzar ese fenómeno.

Veamos: en el Distrito 01, San Luis Río Colorado, llevan como candidato a Manuel de Jesús Baldenebro, ex priista, ex Social Demócrata; pastor cristiano y mejor conocido como “El Mataperros”, por su política como alcalde priista de San Luis, de promover descuentos en el consumo de agua potable por cada perro que le llevaran a sacrificar.

En el distrito 02 de Nogales, va Ana Gabriela Guevara, la gacela sonorense, cuyas glorias como deportista permanecen intocadas, pero como política ha dejado mucho que desear.

En el distrito 03, Hermosillo Norte, va Lorenia Valles, que como candidata del PRD a la alcaldía en 2015, tuvo 3 mil 654 votos, en una plaza donde los primeros lugares se disputan en umbrales superiores a los 100 mil votos.

En el distrito 04, con cabecera en Guaymas, va Heriberto Aguilar Castillo, cuyos antecedentes en negocios chuecos con el padrecismo es lo mejor que tiene en su currículum.

En el distrito 05 va Wendy Briseño, activista de la CNTE.

En el distrito 06 va Javier Lamarque Cano, al que no quieren ni los morenistas de Cajeme.

En el distrito 07 va Hildelisa González, que fue diputada local por el PRD; maestra disidente y rockera motorizada tardía.

Y todavía falta ver los candidatos a las locales y a las alcaldías.

Creo, sin temor a equivocarme, que el mayor porcentaje de voto diferenciado en esta coyuntura se verá en Morena. Mucha gente votando por el Peje, pero muy poca por el resto de sus candidatos.

Siento ser reiterativo, pero estamos frente a un escenario atípico y es difícil prever resultados. En todo caso, hay que dejar que las cosas sucedan.

También me puedes seguir en Twitter @Chaposoto

Visita www.elzancudo.com.mx

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